Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities - Jeffrey S. Rosenthal
In this interesting book (even for the math-challenged like me), Rosenthal preaches the gospel of probability theory. His basic thesis is that a "basic understanding of the rules of probability theory as they apply to real-life circumstances can help us to make sense of these situations, avoid unnecessary fear, seize the opportunites that randomness presents to us, and atually enjoy the uncertainties we face" (2). He may be overstating the value of probability theory, but what preacher doesn't exaggerate? He applies the insights of probability theory - among other things - to airplane safety, the lottery, gambling, polling, studies, evolution, spam, and quantum mechanics. He demonstrates how biased samples skew findings. For example, some companies only present research and findings that support their product. Surprisingly, as much as we curse "random events" (like cancer or accidents) when they strike us personally, we find randomness to establish fairness. When a particular side cannot be taken, we flip a coin, draw straws, or have a lottery to make a choice. Rosenthal writes, "Paradoxically, randomness seems very unfair when disease or terrorism strikes, but as a way of settling human affairs, it may be the fairest mechanism we've got" (189).